The table below summarizes what probabilistic approach to use based on the type of risk and whether the risk elements are correlated or not:
Discrete/ Continuous |
Correlated/ Independent |
Sequential/ Concurrent |
Risk Approach |
Discrete | Independent | Sequential | Decision Tree |
Discrete | Correlated | Concurrent | Scenario Analysis |
Continuous | Either | Either | Simulations |
The table below summarizes whether the three probabilistic approaches can be used as complements or substitutes for risk-adjusted value.
Complements Risk-Adjusted Value | Substitute for Risk-Adjusted Value | |
Scenario Analysis | Yes | No |
Decision Tree | Yes | Yes |
Simulations | Yes | Yes |