fbpixel
Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Search in posts
Search in pages
Filter by Categories
1. Introduction
1. Introduction
1. Introduction
1. Introduction
1. Introduction
1. Introduction
1. Introduction
1. Introduction
1. Introduction
10. Market Regulation
10. Using Geometric and Arithmetic Means
101 concepts level I
101 concepts level II
2. Acquisition of Long-Lived Assets
2. Aggregate Output and Income
2. Alternative Investments
2. Analysis of Market Structures
2. Benefits of Securitization for Economies and Financial Markets
2. Bond Prices and the Time Value of Money
2. Bonds Payable
2. Capital Market Theory
2. Components and Format of the Cash Flow Statement
2. Corporate Governance Overview
2. Cost of Capital
2. Credit Risk
2. Demand Analysis: The Consumer
2. Discrete Random Variables
2. Fundamental Concepts of Derivative Pricing
2. Hypothesis Testing
2. Index Definition and Calculations of Value and Returns
2. International Trade
2. Investment Characteristics of Assets
2. Leverage
2. Managing and Measuring Liquidity
2. Monetary Policy
2. Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return
2. Overview of a Fixed Income Security
2. Overview of Global Fixed-Income Markets
2. Overview of the Business Cycle
2. Portfolio Planning
2. Probability, Expected Value, and Variance
2. Sampling
2. Some Fundamental Concepts
2. Technical Analysis: Definition and Scope
2. The Concept of Market Efficiency
2. The Financial Analysis Process
2. The Foreign Exchange Market
2. The Functions of the Financial System
3. Accounts and Financial Statements
3. Aggregate Demand, Aggregate Supply, and Equilibrium
3. Analytical Tools and Techniques
3. Approaches to Identifying Similar Companies
3. Assets and Contracts
3. Business and Financial Risk
3. Capital Structure, Seniority Ranking and Recovery Rates
3. Company Stakeholders
3. Context for Assessing Financial Reporting Quality
3. Continuous Random Variables
3. Costs of the Different Sources of Capital
3. Currency Exchange Rate Calculations
3. Current Assets and Current Liabilities
3. Depreciation and Amortization of Long-Lived Tangible Assets
3. Determining the Tax Base of Assets and Liabilities
3. Distribution of the Sample Mean
3. Fiscal Policy
3. Forms of Market Efficiency
3. Hedge Funds
3. How Securitization Works
3. Hypothesis Tests Concerning the Mean
3. Index Construction and Management
3. Interest Rate Risk on Fixed-Rate Bonds
3. Inventory Valuation Methods
3. Leases
3. Legal, Regulatory, and Tax Considerations
3. Managing the Cash Position
3. Perfect Competition
3. Portfolio Construction
3. Portfolio Expected Return and Variance of Return
3. Portfolio Return Measurement
3. Prices and Yields: Conventions for Quotes and Calculations
3. Pricing and Valuation of Forward Commitments
3. Pricing of Risk and Computation of Expected Return
3. Primary and Secondary Bond Markets
3. Revenue Recognition
3. Risk Aversion and Portfolio Selection
3. Risk Governance
3. Summarizing Data Using Frequency Distributions
3. Supply Analysis: The Firm
3. Technical Analysis Tools
3. The Cash Flow Statement: Linkages and Preparation
3. The Future Value of a Single Cash Flow
3. The Structure of Derivatives Market
3. Theories of the Business Cycle
3. Trade and Capital Flows: Restrictions and Agreements
3. Types and Characteristics of Equity Securities
4. Cash Flow Statement Analysis
4. Common Ratios Used in Financial Analysis
4. Detection of Financial Reporting Quality Issues
4. Economic Growth and Sustainability
4. Elliot Wave Theory
4. Exchange Rate Regimes
4. Expense Recognition
4. Financial Intermediaries
4. Hypothesis Tests Concerning Variance
4. Identification of Risks
4. Industry Classification Systems
4. Interest Rate Risk and the Investment Horizon
4. Introduction to Pensions and Other Post-Employment Benefits
4. Investing Short-Term Funds
4. Investment Decision Criteria
4. Market Pricing Anomalies
4. Money Market Yields
4. Monopolistic Competition
4. Monte Carlo Simulation
4. Non-Current Assets
4. Point and Interval Estimates of the Population Mean
4. Portfolio Risk
4. Present Value Models: The Dividend Discount Model
4. Pricing and Valuation of Options
4. Private Equity
4. Private versus Public Equity Securities
4. Rating Agencies, Credit Rating and Their Role in Debt Markets
4. Residential Mortgage Loans
4. Sovereign Bonds
4. Stakeholder Management
4. Structure of a Bond’s Cash Flows
4. Temporary and Permanent Differences between Taxable and Accounting Profit
4. The Accounting Process
4. The Balance of Payments
4. The Capital Asset Pricing Model
4. The Future Value of a Series of Cash Flows
4. The Graphic Presentation of Data
4. The LIFO Method
4. The Maturity Structure of Interest Rates
4. The Relationship between Monetary and Fiscal Policy
4. The Revaluation Model
4. Topics in Cost of Capital Estimation
4. Topics in Probability
4. Types of Derivatives
4. Unemployment and Inflation
4. Uses of Market Indexes
5. Accruals and Valuation Adjustments
5. Behavioral Finance
5. Beyond the Capital Asset Pricing Model
5. Board of Directors and Committees
5. Bonds with Contingency Provisions
5. Conclusion
5. Credit and Liquidity Risk
5. Describing and Analyzing an Industry
5. Economic Indicators
5. Efficient Frontier and Investor’s Optimal Portfolio
5. Equity Analysis
5. Equity Indexes
5. Evaluating Solvency: Leverage and Coverage Ratios
5. Exchange Rates, International Trade, and Capital Flows
5. Impairment of Assets
5. Inter-market Analysis
5. Inventory Method Changes
5. Investing in Non-Domestic Equity Securities
5. Managing Accounts Receivable
5. Measures of Central Tendency
5. Measuring and Modifying Risks
5. More on Sampling
5. Multiplier Models
5. Non-Current Liabilities
5. Non-Recurring Items and Non-Operating Items
5. Non-Sovereign Government, Quasi-Government, and Supranational Bonds
5. Oligopoly
5. Other Issues: Nonparametric Inference
5. Pooled Investments
5. Positions
5. Real Estate
5. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities
5. The Present Value of a Single Cash Flow
5. The Purposes and Benefits of Derivatives
5. Trade Organizations
5. Traditional Credit Analysis: Corporate Debt Securities
5. Unused Tax Losses and Tax Credits
5. Yield Spreads
6. Accounting Systems
6. Asset-Based Valuation
6. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities
6. Commodities
6. Company Analysis
6. Corporate Debt
6. Credit Analysis
6. Credit Risk vs. Return: Yields and Spreads
6. Criticisms and Misuses of Derivatives
6. Derecognition
6. Earnings per Share
6. Equity
6. Factors Affecting Stakeholder Relationships and Corporate Governance
6. Fixed Income Indexes
6. Inventory Adjustments
6. Managing Inventory
6. Monopoly
6. Orders
6. Other Measures of Location: Quantiles
6. Recognition and Measurement of Current and Deferred Tax
6. Risk and Return Characteristics of Equity Securities
6. The Present Value of a Series of Cash Flows
7. Analysis of the Balance Sheet
7. Analysis of the Income Statement
7. Business and Geographic Segments
7. Corporate Governance and Stakeholder Management Risks and Benefits
7. Elementary Principles of Derivative Pricing
7. Equity Securities and Company Value
7. Evaluation of Inventory Management
7. Identification of Market Structure
7. Indexes for Alternative Investments
7. Infrastructure
7. Managing Accounts Payable
7. Measures of Dispersion
7. Non-Mortgage Asset-Backed Securities
7. Presentation and Disclosure
7. Presentation and Disclosures
7. Primary Security Markets
7. Solving for Rates, Number of Periods, or Size of Annuity Payments
7. Special Considerations of High Yield, Sovereign, and Non-Sovereign Credit Analysis
7. Structured Financial Instruments
7. Using Financial Statements in Security Analysis
8. Analyst Considerations in Corporate Governance and Stakeholder Management
8. Collateralized Debt Obligations
8. Comparison of US GAAP and IFRS
8. Comprehensive Income
8. Investment Property
8. Managing Short-Term Financing
8. Model Building and Forecasting
8. Other Alternative Investments
8. Secondary Security Market and Contract Market Structures
8. Short-Term Funding Alternatives Available to Banks
8. Symmetry and Skewness in Return Distributions
9. ESG Considerations for Investors
9. Kurtosis in Return Distributions
9. Leasing
9. Risk Management Overview
9. Well-Functioning Financial Systems
Advice and How to Study Videos
All-Levels
Alternative Investments
Appendix
BookLet Top Level
Corporate Finance
Demystified Videos
Derivatives
Economics
Equity
Ethics
featured
Financial Reporting and Analysis
Fixed Income
Level I
Level I Corporate Finance Full Videos
Level I Economics Full Videos
Level I Ethics Full Videos
Level I FRA Full Videos
Level I Portfolio Management Full Videos
Level I Quantitative Methods Full Videos
Level II
Level III
Portfolio Management
Quantitative Methods
R01 Ethics and Trust in the Investment Profession
R02 Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct Profession
R03 Guidance for Standards I-VII
R04 Introduction to the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS)
R05 The GIPS Standard
R06 Time Value of Money
R07 Discounted Cash Flow Applications
R08 Statistical Concepts and Market Return
R09 Probability Concepts
R10 Common Probability Distributions
R11 Sampling and Estimation
R12 Hypothesis Testing
R13 Technical Analysis
R14 Topics in Demand and Supply Analysis
R15 The Firm and Market Structures
R16 Aggregate Output, Prices and Economic Growth
R17 Understanding Business Cycles
R18 Monetary and Fiscal Policy
R19 International Trade and Capital Flows
R20 Currency Exchange Rates
R21 Financial Statement Analysis
R22 Financial Reporting Mechanics
R23 Financial Reporting Standards
R24 Understanding Income Statements
R25 Understanding Balance Sheets
R26 Understanding Cash Flow Statements
R27 Financial Analysis Techniques
R28 Inventories
R29 Long Lived Assets
R30 Income Taxes
R31 Non-Current Liabilities
R32 Financial Reporting Quality
R33 Financial Statement Analysis Applications
R34 Corporate Governance and ESG - An Introduction
R35 Capital Budgeting
R36 Cost of Capital
R37 Measures of Leverage
R38 Working Capital Management
R39 Portfolio Management Overview
R40 Risk Management - An Introduction
R41 Portfolio Risk and Return Part I
R42 Portfolio Risk and Return Part II
R43 Basics of Portfolio Planning and Construction
R44 Market Organization and Structure
R45 Security Market Indexes
R46 Market Efficiency
R47 Overview of Equity Securities
R48 Introduction to Industry and Company Analysis
R49 Equity Valuation
R50 Fixed Income Securities - Defining Elements
R51 Fixed Income Markets - Issuance Trading and Funding
R52 Introduction to Fixed Income Valuation
R53 Introduction to Asset Backed Securities
R54 Understanding Fixed-Income Risk and Return
R55 Fundamentals of Credit Analysis
R56 Derivative Markets and Instruments
R57 Basics of Derivative Pricing and Valuation
R58 Introduction to Alternative Investments
Standard I: Professionalism
Standard II: Integrity of Capital Markets
Standard III: Duties to Clients
Standard IV: Duties to Employers
Standard V: Investment Analysis, Recommendations, and Actions
Standard VI: Conflicts of Interest
Standard VII: Responsibilities as a CFA Institute Member or CFA Candidate
Uncategorized
101 Concepts for the Level I Exam

Essential Concept 6: Linear vs Log-Linear Trend Models

  • When the dependent variable changes at a constant amount with time, a linear trend model is used.
    The linear trend equation is given by   ${\mathrm{y}}_{\mathrm{t}~}\mathrm{=}~{\mathrm{b}}_{0~}\mathrm{+}~{\mathrm{b}}_{\mathrm{1}}\mathrm{t}~\mathrm{+\ }{\mathrm{\epsilon}}_{\mathrm{t}},~\mathrm{t}~\mathrm{=\ 1,\ 2,\ \dots ,}~\mathrm{T}~$
  • When the dependent variable changes at a constant rate (grows exponentially), a log-linear trend model is used.
    The log-liner trend equation is given by ln   y${}_{t}$ = b${}_{0}$ + b${}_{1}$t, t = 1, 2, {\dots}, T
  • A limitation of trend models is that by nature they tend to exhibit serial correlation in errors, due to which they are not useful.
  • The Durban-Watson statistic is used to test for serial correlation. If this statistic differs significantly from 2, then we can conclude the presence of serial correlation in errors. To overcome this problem, we use autoregressive time series (AR) models.

« Previous Next »

CFA Institute does not endorse, promote, or warrant the accuracy or quality of the products or services offered by IFT. CFA®, Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute. McAfee SECURE sites help keep you safe from identity theft, credit card fraud, spyware, spam, viruses and online scams